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Contrary to many of the projections currently making their way around
the marketplace, Jupiter MMXI forecasts that the adoption of
broadband will be slow across Europe.
Among the reasons for the sluggish adoption:
the lack of competition across, low customer demand and, of course,
the high price of the technology. Jupiter MMXI said it costs more
than 200 Euros for a connection and an additional 50 Euros for a
monthly subscription across Europe.
As a result of the gradual uptake of
broadband, Jupiter MMXI predicts only 14 percent of European households
will be using broadband by 2005. By that time, 32 percent of online
households worldwide will be accessing the Internet from a broadband
connection.
The challenge for suppliers is to create
value in the broadband proposition.
"The high prices currently being
charged for broadband access means that the majority of consumers
are discouraged from the technology," said Steffan Engdegard,
author of the Jupiter MMXI report. "To attract these people,
companies need to improve their marketing message to ensure that
Europeans understand the added value of broadband."
European consumers are aware of the
improved Internet connection that broadband provides, but don't
seem to be aware of its full potential. For example, consumers would
have access to an unlimited choice of films on demand, improved
music download quality, the ability to play games over the Internet
with hundreds of people, software rental, e-books and e-learning.
A consumer survey conducted across seven
markets in Europe by Jupiter MMXI found the main reason consumers
said they would install a broadband connection is to keep the telephone
line free while surfing the Net. One-third wanted it for faster
Internet access and 29 percent to download software quickly.
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European Broadband Penetration
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Region/Nation
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2000
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2005
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Nordic
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2.3%
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30.0%
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Germany
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0.9%
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17.0%
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UK
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0.3%
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15.0%
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France
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0.6%
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10.0%
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Italy
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0.1%
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10.0%
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Spain
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0.2%
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8.0%
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Source:
Jupiter MMXI
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Jupiter MMXI also predicts that the
Nordic regions, which has the highest Internet penetration in Europe,
will adopt broadband the fastest. Thirty percent of the households
in Sweden, Finland, Norway and Denmark will be using broadband by
2005. Germany and Britain are expected to develop more slowly; Germany
will have 17 percent, and Britain will have 15 percent of households
with a broadband connection at the end of 2005. France, Italy and
Spain are expected to have about 10 percent of households accessing
broadband by then.
While broadband adoption may be slow
in Europe the same cannot be said for Internet adoption. According
to eMarketer's eEurope Report, 108 million Europeans
will be active internet users by year-end 2001, a 54 percent increase
from the 70 million online recorded in 2000. The report also projects
255 million Europeans will actively be online by 2004.
"The European online community
reflects a moderate slowdown in the global economy from the past
few high-growth years," said Nevin Cohen, eMarketer senior
analyst. "However, if the U.S. faces a more serious-than-expected
recession this year, Internet penetration in Europe is likely to
proceed much more slowly, particularly in large portions of the
region with nascent market economies."
European e-commerce will generate $69
billion by 2001, an increase of 103 percent from the $34 billion
recorded last year. That figure is expected to rise to $980 billion
by 2004.
"This rapid expansion of e-commerce
activity depends on increased investment in information technology,
steadily increasing internet access, and public policies to make
e-business more secure and appealing," Cohen said.
Given the growing ubiquity of wireless
phones in Europe, eMarketer also estimates that by 2003, Europe
will account for the highest number of worldwide wireless Web users.
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