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EMI's glittering roster of recording artists, from Mariah Carey to the
Rolling Stones, failed to save the music giant from a dismal year, but
investors are pinning hopes on new recruit Alain Levy to bring sparkle
back to the balance sheet.
In an industry facing its worst ever year, EMI is reeling from two failed
mergers and a lack of big hits. Jaded investors are eager to hear Levy's
plans as the new head of recorded music when the group reports an expected
sharp fall in first half profits Monday.
EMI warned in September that full-year profits would slide 20 percent
as the group floundered in the world's biggest market, the United States,
and all eyes will be on how business is faring ahead of the all-important
Christmas period.
Already suffering low growth as CD replacement sales wane and piracy
eats into the profits, the economic slowdown and Sept. 11 attacks in the
United States have hit the industry hard, battering majors that also include
Warner Music, BMG, Sony Music and Universal.
Analysts are forecasting a fall in EMI's operating profit to between
$62 million and $67 million for the six months to end September, from
a previous $161 million, on revenues of around $1.58 billion, down some
four percent.
The group is also expected to post a sharp fall at a pretax level, with
forecasts ranging between break-even and a loss of $!3.7 million compared
to a previous profit of $85.6 million.
``We'll want to hear Monday just how bad the industry is right now as
well as Levy's first impressions of the business and what actions he might
take to improve it,'' said Helen Snell, music analyst at ABN Amro in London.
DIVIDEND UNDER THREAT?
Recorded music sales in the industry as a whole are expected to shrink
more than 10 percent this year and the outlook is not much better, with
sales seen down three percent next year. ``We expect 2001 to be the worst
year in music history,'' Merrill Lynch said in a report this week.
In such a climate, some analysts say EMI's pledge not to cut its dividend
this year, based on what it predicts will be a better second half, could
come under threat.
``There is scope for them to fall a little short of where they are currently
expecting to be,'' said Snell.
``My concerns are that we haven't seen any improvement in the global
music industry and if anything we've seen a continued decline and I think
they may simply find it hard to outperform given the state of the industry
overall,'' she added.
The key will be the Christmas period when EMI is releasing some big albums.
EMI's Pink Floyd ``Echoes'' album has already debuted at number two in
Britain and the United States but its roster could struggle to match the
success of last year's Beatles No.1 album.
``If they don't sell well through Christmas, we could get to the second
week of January and perhaps they might warn again on profits,'' said one
analyst.
REVIVING THE U.S.
The United States has been a big problem for EMI. Under its former head
of recorded music Ken Berry, EMI watched its market share dwindle to 10
percent, ranking it last among the five majors.
Under Levy, investors hope things will be different. As head of Universal's
PolyGram, Levy built the strongest company in the business and he has
already been doing the global rounds at EMI.
In the meantime, analysts are not getting too excited. EMI's shares have
lost 50 percent of their value so far this year to around $4.40 pence
and predators are still not circling.
``There's little to be positive about. If they do ramp up profits in
the short term, it could be at the expense of longer term growth. This
is a weak company in a weak market at the moment,'' said Simon Baker,
analyst at SG Securities.
On November 13, legendary rock icon Ronnie Spector won a 13-year court
battle against ex-husband/producer Phil Spector over royalties due her
1960's group The Ronettes. A New York State appeals court ordered Phil
Spector to pay close to $3 million dollars plus interest to Ronnie and
the Ronettes.
The Supreme Court's Appellate Division ruled in a unanimous decision
that upheld a lower court ruling (of $2.6 million in June 2000). The ruling
basically stated Phil Spector breached a 1963 contract with the Ronettes
for royalties and payments of licensing for hit songs such as ``Be My
Baby,'' ``Walking In The Rain'' and ``Baby I Love You.''
Says Ronnie Spector, ``I'm thrilled at the appellate courts unanimous
decision. All along I remained focused and knew that only one decision
could be reached if you followed the facts and the law. I hope this proves
to be positive for all recording artists and affords other acts the opportunity
to be properly compensated for their work.''
Ronnie Spector, the original bad girl who redefined and helped shape
the look and sound of rock & roll has truly become a champion of artist's
rights. She joined the Recording Artists Coalition to help oppose a law
that amends the Copyright Act, making sound recordings work for hire and
impossible for artists to reclaim as their own in the future. (Her consistent
involvement in the coalition prevailed, thus successfully repealing the
law). Ronnie stated, ``With recording artists like Courtney Love and Don
Henley fighting for the rights of recording artists, I'm proud to play
a role in correcting some of the past and present injustices.''
This past year, Ronnie Spector has also put her energy back into the
studio to record music for a much-anticipated album. She is currently
negotiating a new recording deal. With an optimistic insight into the
present state of women in the music business Ronnie enounces, ``This isn't
the 60's anymore. This is a different world today where women are making
a big difference.''
Since September 11th, music has played a larger role than some might
think in helping to heal a grieving nation. It has helped some to mourn
their losses, it has helped some to see off their loved ones in the military,
it has helped others to embrace life and given others tremendous pride
in their country. From the enormous sums of money raised from concert
events, to the apparent questions that surround the music industry's capability
to give the nation the music it needs, this Fall season is shaping up
to be like no other.
Yet, industry experts seem to agree that this Christmas season will see
a movement towards the purchase of familiar, comforting music, from artists
who remind us of better times. ``People are looking for music not just
for entertainment's sake,'' says Caren Goldstone, Vice President,
Music Marketing for The Handelman Company, ``but to give themselves
a level of comfort in these very uncertain times.'' Jim Ryan, WLTW-FM
(New York) operations manager adds, ``Since September 11th, people have
been reaching out to music to re-live familiar memories.''
And with that it should come as no surprise that many industry executives
are expecting success from releases with classic songs by familiar artists
with positive messages. Many are specifically citing and predicting success
for the Bee Gees: Their Greatest Hits: The Record slated for release on
November 20th -- a 40-track, 2 CD-set comprised of 19 #1 singles, a virtual
musical soundtrack for those who remember better times from the 60's,
70's, 80's and 90's.
``One
of the best records to fill the bill this Christmas season is Bee
Gees: Greatest Hits: The Record, an all hits package that should
conjure up warm memories for several decades of fans,'' said Vinnie
Birbiglia of Trans World Entertainment Corporation, which owns
and operates Record Town, Camelot Music, The Wall and Coconuts Music.
Goldstone, whose Handelman Company provides music for Walmart and K-Mart
making it one of the largest music retailers in the world agrees, ``This
Bee Gees record is coming at just the right time. I think that people
will embrace the nostalgia that comes from these songs that was so much
a part of our lives during those times.'' Ryan adds, ``Who hasn't had
good times while listening to the Bee Gees?''
Digital Bridge Inc. today announced the formation of Tantivy Entertainment,
Inc., an innovative music production and distribution company formed to
capitalize on significant opportunities in the recording industry.
The company will be producing and distributing original live music recordings
of nationally recognized artists at proprietary Branded Venues, and will
also purchase pre-existing jazz, big band, and classic rock music catalogs
and other entertainment assets.
``The mission of Tantivy Entertainment is to capitalize on undervalued
catalogs, underworked venue opportunities, and undervalued artists, and
to leverage our intellectual property assets in the entertainment industry
to the greatest extent possible,'' stated John C. Flanders, Jr., Digital
Bridge's Chief Executive Officer.
``We've developed a fantastic 'Branded Venue' business model that utilizes
underworked venues that draw undervalued artists, and merges the two into
a valuable moneymaking concept. The formation of Tantivy Entertainment
is a perfect example of what Digital Bridge does as an International Business
Architect.''
Digital Bridge also announced the appointment of Mr. Jerome Bowie as
Managing Director of the new subsidiary. Mr. Bowie has over 30 years of
experience in the music industry, having served as an executive with K-Tel
and other music companies, where he established relationships with major
retail and record store distribution partners throughout North America.
Mr. Bowie is also responsible for the growth of Tantivy's Catalog Division,
and has secured and distributed hundreds of valuable music properties
throughout his career.
``I am absolutely thrilled to be working with Digital Bridge's Tantivy
Entertainment subsidiary,'' stated Mr. Bowie. ``There is an enormous amount
of untapped opportunity in this industry, and the team at Digital Bridge
not only recognized that opportunity, but built an incredibly robust business
model to capitalize on that opportunity in record time.''
Tantivy Entertainment will be recording live music at select ``Branded
Venues'' throughout the world, and will be distributing these live recordings
through major music retailers. The intimate setting of these Branded Venues
helps set the stage for some remarkable performances, which will be captured
with state of the art recording equipment.
``This model benefits the venue, whose brand is reinforced at a global
scale, benefits the artist, and directly benefits Tantivy Entertainment,
which will control all aspects of production and distribution,'' continued
Mr. Bowie.
Tantivy Entertainment is currently negotiating with several music venues,
artists, and catalog owners, and also anticipates the launch of its Web
site within the next few weeks.
About Digital Bridge Inc.
Digital Bridge is an ``International Business Architect,'' that acquires,
manages, and maximizes undervalued assets throughout the world, and generates
opportunities and profits by leveraging those assets in creative ways.
The company provides management, sales, distribution, marketing, and Internet
enterprise solutions to a wide range of clients and partners in many different
industries. Additional information can be found at http://www.digitalbridge.com and
at http://www.otvnet.com.
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