Many Films Have Reason for Oscar Dreams

By mid-December a year ago, it had become quite clear that while Ridley Scott's "Gladiator" was the film to beat for the Academy Award, a spirited battle was still likely involving Steven Soderbergh's "Traffic" and Ang Lee's "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon." The year before, it was even earlier in December that Sam Mendes's "American Beauty" had acquired its sheen of Oscar inevitability.

But this year the only thing clear and inevitable about the Oscar race is that some movie will win the best picture prize in ceremonies the night of March 24, to be held in the Oscars' new permanent home at the Kodak Theater in the heart of Hollywood Boulevard.

Which movie that will be is anyone's guess."I think it is the most wide open and uncertain Oscar year that I can ever remember," said Michael Schamberg, a veteran producer whose "Erin Brockovich" was among last year's award winners. "Outside of 'A Beautiful Mind' and maybe `The Lord of the Rings,' there is not even a consensus on what's likely to be nominated, much less likely to win."

It has become part of the annual ritual of pre-awards-season Hollywood bashing to declare that this year, whichever year it happens to be, has been a horrible one for the art of mainstream moviemaking. And that is certainly the consensus in Hollywood about the movie year that is coming to a fitful close.

But usually by year's end, even in the weakest of years, there is a consensus about which of a dozen or so worthy films will end up among the five Oscar nominees for best picture and save the industry's tarnished creative reputation.

"You always hear at the beginning of September that that's how the year is shaping up," said David Brooks, co-chief of marketing at Miramax Films. "But then people say, oh, don't worry, there are a lot of great films coming in December, and there will be plenty to choose from. But this year, for some reason, that didn't happen."

Several of the bigger year-end films that many had expected to play a role in the Oscar race among them "The Majestic," a small-town period drama from the director Frank Darabont starring Jim Carrey, and "Vanilla Sky," a psychological thriller from the writer-director Cameron Crowe starring Tom Cruise failed to generate those kinds of reviews and early awards.

"What's fascinating about this year is that no one can make heads or tails of it," said Peter Bart, editor of Daily Variety. "It's hard to remember any race where the outcome was so obscure."

A lot of films have their strong proponents: Ron Howard's "Beautiful Mind," Baz Luhrmann's "Moulin Rouge," Ridley Scott's "Black Hawk Down," Peter Jackson's "Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring," Todd Fields's "In the Bedroom," Robert Altman's "Gosford Park," Jean- Pierre Jeunet's "Amélie," Christopher Nolan's "Memento," Michael Mann's "Ali," even the computer-animated "Shrek," which surprised many by becoming one of the year's biggest critical and box-office hits.

"There are a lot of strong coteries of support for several different pictures," Mr. Bart said. "But I can't remember a time when for every little support group there is also a group of antagonists who are just as passionate about why the film doesn't deserve it."

In almost any competitive Oscar year there are proponents for a film who also spend at least some of their energy talking about the shortcomings of its rivals. But in this murky year, with so many films having a genuine shot at a nomination, the chorus of naysayers has risen to something only Handel might have imagined.

"The Lord of the Rings?" Too long, too confusing, too silly. "A Beautiful Mind?" Another batch of mainstream studio sentimentality. "Black Hawk Down?" Too unremittingly intense. "Moulin Rouge?" Too busy. "Memento?" Too baffling. "In the Bedroom?" Too edgy. "Amélie?" Not edgy enough. And on and on.

Scott Greenstein, chairman of USA Films, said he was encouraged that at least his studio's top Oscar candidate, "Gosford Park," seemed to have not yet attracted the kinds of passionate enemies who have coalesced around other top films.

"In this year's blurry, grayish race," he said, "I'll take that right now."

Tom Rothman, co-chairman of Fox Filmed Entertainment, which includes 20th Century Fox, said he sensed that the murk was actually beginning to clear and that Oscar voters were beginning to group around a handful of films, including "A Beautiful Mind," "Black Hawk Down" and "The Lord of the Rings."

And he said he was encouraged by which films were emerging.

"I have to say that the pictures that have strong constituencies, and I'd include our `Moulin Rouge' in that list, are the pictures that took risks, that pushed the boundaries and that were somewhat audacious," he said.

Sometimes, the early awards from the critics groups help winnow the field and point to one or two films that the critical community, at least, believes are the year's strongest. Other years, the critics groups strike out in every direction, and this has been one of those years.

The National Board of Review, a group of film scholars and critics who are most notable for being the first of the award- givers, in early December, went with "Moulin Rouge."

Then the New York Film Critics Circle retorted with David Lynch's "Mulholland Drive," a movie that many in Hollywood feel is too odd and challenging to stand a chance in the decidedly mainstream Academy Awards.

The Los Angeles Film Critics Association voted for "In the Bedroom," Toronto critics went for "Memento," Boston critics chose "Mulholland Drive," and San Diego critics picked the director Terry Zwigoff's highly regarded, offbeat "Ghost World."

Some of the groups, like the Broadcast Film Critics Association, the American Film Institute and the Hollywood Foreign Press Association with its influential Golden Globes, try to become miniature versions of the Oscars by first issuing a list of nominees and then unveiling the winners in televised ceremonies. (The American Film Institute, which is new to the annual film awards game this year, will hand out its honors on Saturday, the broadcast critics on Jan. 11. The Golden Globes will be presented on Jan. 20.)

But consensus was hard to find even among their various lists of nominees. The American Film Institute gave the most nominations to "Black Hawk Down" and "In the Bedroom," yet the former movie did not draw a single Golden Globe nomination. Instead, the foreign journalists gave the most nominations to "A Beautiful Mind" (as did the broadcast critics) and "Moulin Rouge."

Perhaps, many hope, all of this will clear up when the winners of these awards are announced in the next few weeks. If not, then people will turn their attention to the actual Oscar nominations, to be announced on Feb. 12, and to the various Hollywood guild awards from actors, directors and others, which are handed out in late February and early March, in the weeks between the Oscar nominations and the Oscar ceremonies.

One result that many expect from such a close and uncertain Oscar race is that it will become even more important for the studios to make sure that as many members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences as possible actually see their films. The academy has roughly 5,600 members, who vote for the Oscars.

"You've just got to get people to see your movie," Mr. Brooks said. "In terms of screenings for academy members, we've already seen that a lot of people are screening their movies very heavily, and I think you will see that trend continue through January, to give everybody a chance to see it."

Advertising campaigns and other Oscar-related attempts to promote the visibility of a particular film or performer are also expected to be more plentiful and important than in previous years, and also more expensive.

Although the current wisdom has it that "In the Bedroom" is Miramax's strongest shot for a best picture nomination, the studio has at least three other films ("Amélie," "The Shipping News" and "Iris") that have a chance of landing among the final five.

"You have to put your best foot forward for all of your films," Mr. Brooks said. "We really are in the `anything can happen over the next several weeks' stage."

Columbia Pictures will need to mount campaigns for two credible candidates, "Black Hawk Down" and "Ali." And even Universal, which has in "A Beautiful Mind" as close to a front-runner as this year's race provides, cannot ignore all of the awards that have already gone out to another of its films, "Mulholland Drive," regardless of the prevailing opinion of its Oscar chances.

Not everyone thinks that this is all bad news, either.

"This kind of race is very good for us," Mr. Bart, of Daily Variety, said. "The worst for our paper is a year like when `Titanic' was up, where there's one film that's way ahead. When the number and size of our Oscar ads goes up, as they have this year, it's a real indicator that the competition is more intense."

And some think the uncertainty this year will even be beneficial for the movies.

"In a way, it's a good thing," Mr. Schamberg, the producer, said. "It will make people think a little bit more about what good filmmaking entails and what it takes to give a good performance, instead of just phoning in their vote as they might have done in the past."